Sequential Effects in Prediction

Abstract

We studied a simple binary prediction task and discovered that, when making predictions, humans display sequential effects similar to those in reaction time. Moreover, we found that there are considerable individual differences in sequential effects in prediction, again similarly to reaction time studies. We discuss our results in light of the view that sequential effects are the trace of an attempt at detecting a pattern in the sequence, as well as the possible influence of randomness perception in our results. We conclude that the same pattern detection mechanism is likely to underlie sequential effects in reaction time and prediction.


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