Predicting Individual Human Reasoning: The PRECORE-Challenge

AbstractCognitive modeling is based on aggregate data. In recent years, skepticism about general group-to-individual generalizability has begun to emerge (Molenaar, 2004; Fisher, Medaglia, & Jeronimus, 2018). Simultaneously, results have shown that the current state of the art in modeling reasoning is approaching a ceiling caused by the focus on aggregates (Riesterer, Brand, & Ragni, 2018). The time is ripe to adopt a new perspective on the cognitive modeling problem: modeling the individual reasoner.


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